Thucydides Trap and Its Relevance in Contemporary Politics

Abstract

This paper examines the Thucydides Trap, a framework positing that structural power shifts between a rising and an established state heighten the risk of conflict, and its relevance in contemporary politics. Through historical case studies, including the Cold War, Napoleonic Wars, and World War I, the analysis reveals that while power transitions create inherent tensions, outcomes are shaped by factors such as alliance dynamics, ideological rivalries, and strategic statecraft. The study highlights instances where war was averted through diplomatic engagement, economic interdependence, and institutional frameworks, as exemplified by the US-Soviet Cold War and Portugal and Spain’s negotiated division of global spheres. Conversely, cases like Britain-Germany pre-WWI demonstrate how security dilemmas and zero-sum thinking escalate hostilities. The paper concludes that mitigating the Thucydides Trap in modern contexts, such as US-China relations, requires prioritizing economic ties, multilateral institutions, and dialogue to transcend zero-sum paradigms. By learning from historical successes and failures, policymakers can navigate power transitions peacefully in an era of existential risks.