Immersion And Resilience: The Recovery of Inbound Tourism and The New Paradigm of Holiday Consumption Under the Double Circulation Pattern of Chinas Tourism Industry

Abstract

Under the impetus of Chinas "dual circulation" new development pattern and high-level opening-up policy, the tourism industry has become a key driver for economic growth and cultural exchange. Since 2000, the CEPA agreement has deepened regional integration between the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, facilitating structural differentiation in inbound tourism; the Belt and Road Initiative has expanded emerging source markets through visa facilitation; policies such as the State Councils "Opinions on Further Stimulating the Potential of Cultural and Tourism Consumption" have accelerated the development of night-time economy and quality upgrades. At the same time, the impact of irresistible factors highlights the importance of building resilience in the tourism sector. The domestic strategy of "expanding domestic demand" has promoted concentrated holiday consumption, forming a market structure characterized by "domestic demand-led, bidirectional circulation." In this context, this study systematically analyzes three core issues in the tourism industry based on multi-source data and modeling methods: For the first research question: Based on data from 2000 to 2019, time series analysis shows that Chinas inbound tourism has grown at an average annual rate of 3.2%, but there is significant differentiation among source markets: tourists from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan account for 70-85%, while foreign tourists fluctuate by ±15%. The grey relational model indicates that for every 1% increase in shopping consumption, the total revenue elasticity coefficient rises by 0.37, and post-crisis income recovery lags by 18-24 months (for example, Japanese tourist arrivals fell by 24% in 2012, leading to a 30% drop in spending) For the second research question: Data from 2022 shows that the Spring Festival and National Day Golden Week contributed 41.6% to the annual tourism consumption, with daily visitor numbers being 3.8 to 4.2 times higher than on regular holidays, and per capita spending reaching 2,300 yuan (62% higher than on weekdays). The occupancy rate of high-star hotels exceeded 90%, and nighttime cultural and tourism consumption accounted for 45%, reflecting the trend of consumption upgrade and diversification during holidays.